7 Jul · 00:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1434
FormLWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Fabis
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1390
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H55-45
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (55-45)