7 Jul · 02:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1494
FormWLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kostepski
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1565
FormWWWWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Kostepski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H27-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-14)