7 Jul · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1484
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1488
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H66-82
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.