7 Jul · 06:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MO
🇵🇱Martin Olejnik
ELO 1803
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Olejnik
DM
🇵🇱Dawid Michna
ELO 1793
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Olejnik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H10-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.