7 Jul · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1354
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Nowak
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1319
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H14-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.