7 Jul · 06:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AW
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1817
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wiecek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kosowski
ELO 1813
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Wiecek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H59-62
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.