7 Jul · 05:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1474
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sobel
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1487
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H45-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.