7 Jul · 05:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JB
🇵🇱Josef Braun
ELO 1738
FormLWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Olejnik
MO
🇵🇱Martin Olejnik
ELO 1803
FormLLWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Olejnik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+65
H2H17-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-12)