7 Jul · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1475
FormLWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lilien
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1409
FormLWLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H22-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-12)