7 Jul · 06:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1484
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sobel
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1416
FormWLLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H10-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-6)