7 Jul · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1356
FormLLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kaczmarek
MC
🇵🇱Milosz Cesarz
ELO 1288
FormLLLWL
57%
43%
🌟Cesarz goes over total as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H33-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-11)