7 Jul · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1472
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lilien
DS
🇵🇱Dominik Solilo
ELO 1443
FormWWLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.