7 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1358
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kaczmarek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1363
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H26-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.