7 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1330
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kaczmarek
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1362
FormWLLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Kaczmarek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H12-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.