7 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1536
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Ptak
WP
🇵🇱Wiktor Ptak
ELO 1537
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Ptak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 45% · 2.20· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.