7 Jul · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1512
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Warpas
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1497
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.60· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.