7 Jul · 13:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1477
FormWLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Ptak
WP
🇵🇱Wiktor Ptak
ELO 1528
FormLLWLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Ptak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~82 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)