7 Jul · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kwapis
ELO 1569
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1575
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H16-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.