7 Jul · 15:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1549
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Adamus
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1607
FormWWWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H43-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)