7 Jul · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1546
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gajda
WP
🇵🇱Wiktor Ptak
ELO 1524
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.