7 Jul · 16:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AG
🇵🇱Artur Gromek
ELO 1513
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gromek
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1500
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Gromek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.