7 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WS
🇵🇱Waclaw Suchecki
ELO 1380
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mrugala
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1398
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.