7 Jul · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1591
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Koczyba
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1562
FormWWWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H33-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.