7 Jul · 20:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1317
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1346
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.28· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H35-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.