7 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1338
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1358
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.07· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H13-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.