7 Jul · 21:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1487
FormLLLWW
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Koczyba
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1582
FormLLWLW
40%
60%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~75 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
22%
3-1
16%
2-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+95
H2H42-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+95)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-13)