7 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1400
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mrugala
JP
🇵🇱Jacek Przewlocki
ELO 1367
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.