7 Jul · 23:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1473
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wrzalik
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1460
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Wrzalik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.