7 Jul · 23:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1359
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Przewlocki
JP
🇵🇱Jacek Przewlocki
ELO 1369
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Przewlocki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.