8 Jul · 07:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1374
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1387
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H19-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.