8 Jul · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1456
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Paszkiewicz
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1484
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Paszkiewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H13-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.