8 Jul · 10:05 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1415
FormLLLLL
72%Win chancemodel fair 1.39Poliniewicz
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1628
FormWLLWW
28%
72%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 72% · 1.39vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 57%Total ~76 pts
0-3
31%
1-3
26%
2-3
15%
3-2
12%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+213
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+213)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)