8 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1448
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Adamus
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1440
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H20-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.