8 Jul · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1548
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lebek
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1489
FormWWWWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H21-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-15)