8 Jul · 11:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1526
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gajda
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1511
FormWLLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H10-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.