8 Jul · 12:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BK
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1378
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1389
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.