8 Jul · 16:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1520
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Gajda
GJ
🇵🇱Grzegorz Jurowicz
ELO 1436
FormLWLLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H16-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-9)