8 Jul · 19:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1529
FormWWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Smolka
GJ
🇵🇱Grzegorz Jurowicz
ELO 1447
FormWLWLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H14-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-7)