8 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1325
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1363
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.