8 Jul · 22:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1404
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Skorski
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1347
FormLLWLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H47-42
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (47-42)