8 Jul · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1455
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Adamus
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1422
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Adamus goes over total as favourite 67% (12)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H16-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.