8 Jul · 22:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1581
FormWWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Koczyba
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1512
FormWWWWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H33-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-17)