8 Jul · 21:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KJ
🇵🇱Karol Jablonski
ELO 1387
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1422
FormLLLLL
46%
54%
🌟Urban goes over total as favourite 77% (13)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.