8 Jul · 23:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1344
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Trela
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1325
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.