9 Jul · 01:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1350
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1361
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H47-52
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.