9 Jul · 01:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1619
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1653
FormWWLLL
46%
54%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 67% (15)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.92· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H14-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.