9 Jul · 00:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1319
FormLLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1361
FormWLWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H13-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-12)