9 Jul · 00:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1579
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Koczyba
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1535
FormLLWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H46-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (46-8)