9 Jul · 00:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1350
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Skorski
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1414
FormWWWWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H48-42
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (48-42)