9 Jul · 02:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1358
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Trela
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1325
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.